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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 8th, 2019–Dec 9th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Triggering avalanches is possible where wind slabs have formed in the alpine.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear with some clouds, 30 km/h wind from the northwest, temperature inversion with alpine temperatures above freezing and dropping to -6 C in valleys.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, 40 km/h wind from the south, temperature inversion with alpine temperatures up to +2 C.

TUESDAY: Increasing cloud with light flurries starting in the evening, 40-60 km/h wind from the south, alpine high temperatures around -2 C.

WEDNESDAY: Snow increasing in intensity throughout the day with 10-20 cm possible by the afternoon, 70-90 km/h wind from the south, alpine high temperatures around -2 C.

Avalanche Summary

The last reported avalanches were wind slab avalanches in alpine terrain on Thursday and Friday, including a small (size 1) skier triggered wind slab near Shames (see this MIN report). Triggering wind slabs remains possible in alpine terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Open terrain is heavily wind affected, while softer snow can be found in sheltered terrain. At upper elevations recently formed wind slabs may be sitting on a mix of sugary faceted snow or feathery surface hoar crystals, which could make them reactive to human triggering. Warm alpine temperatures and sunny weather on Monday could also weaken these slabs. Snowpack depths at treeline are likely in the 90-160 cm range, tapering quickly at lower elevations.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.