Temperatures of up to 10C are expected. This will destabilize surface snow and could also release storm slab avalanches at higher elevations.
Weather Forecast
Sunday: Warm, dry and sunny. Freezing level rising to 3400m. Temperatures at 2000m expected to reach 10C. Light winds.Monday: Slightly cooler temperatures, but still a warm day. Freezing level around 2500m. Temperatures at 2000m around 5C. Cloud building through the day with rain starting in the afternoon or evening.Tuesday: Rain to around 2000 m with snow above. Amounts: 15-20mm. Strong southeasterly winds.
Avalanche Summary
Under rapid warming conditions, slab avalanches are possible above 1500 m where recent new snow has fallen. Loose snow avalanches are possible on steep terrain at all elevations, but will be most likely on southerly aspects if the sun comes out.
Snowpack Summary
Warm temperatures at all elevations are consolidating the snowpack and making the surface moist. At elevations above approximately 1500 m precipitation from the previous storm fell as snow, while below that elevation, rain fell. At higher elevations, it's possible a layer of cold snow has become trapped under the most recent storm slab, increasing the likelihood of seeing slab avalanche activity. Below the new storm snow, you'll find about a thick crust buried 30-50 cm below the surface that was buried on January 6. This crust exists up to about 2000m. Beneath the January 6 crust, the lower snowpack is generally strong and well settled.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.