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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2014–Mar 17th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: Snowfall should taper late Sunday as the flow dries, cools & shifts to the NW. Some weak ridging builds in for Monday and Tuesday. The models show a timid system set to arrive late Tuesday night.Sunday Night: Freezing Level: 1400m lowering to 700m; Precipitation: 1:3mm - 1:10cm (locally heavy convective snowfall possible); Treeline Wind: Mod, SW switching NW overnight | Strong NW at ridgetopMonday: Freezing Level: 400m; Precipitation: Trace; Treeline Wind: Light, NW | Moderate NW at ridgetopTuesday: Freezing Level: 500m rising to 1100m; Precipitation: Nil; Wind: Moderate, NWTuesday Night/Wednesday: Freezing Level: 1100m - 1600m; Precipitation: 4:8mm - 4:10cm; Treeline Wind: Moderate, SW | Strong SW at ridgetop

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity to report from Saturday.A group of sledders triggered a large avalanche not far from Blue River on Friday resulting in one fatality. Some information is available here.On Friday we received numerous reports of small soft slabs running on the March 13 Surface Hoar/Crust combo.The group involved in a very close call with a size 3.5 avalanche in the Ozalenka Valley south of McBride submitted a great incident report. Check it out here. It's an excellent example of the kind of activity we've been seeing throughout the interior in the last week.

Snowpack Summary

The storm came in warm and produced 10 - 30 cm of snow that is now resting on the old surface which consists of mix of 3 - 6mm surface hoar and crust.Last weeks storm snow has settled into a 50cm - 80cm slab that rests on the early March interface consisting of small grained surface hoar in sheltered areas and a sun crust on solar aspects. Ridgetop cornices remain large and unsupported.The February 10th surface hoar/facet/crust combo is 90cm - 160cm below the snow surface and widespread throughout the region. Surface avalanches in motion and cornice fall still have the potential to initiate an avalanche on this deeply buried weak layer. Remote triggering on this layer is ongoing. The mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.