It's still winter at higher elevations.
Confidence
Moderate - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
TUESDAY: Mix of sun & cloud. No new precipitation but there could be as much as 15 or 20 cm from the previous storm at the highest elevations. Warmer with alpine temperatures up to +6 C and freezing level near 1600m. Light east wind.WEDNESDAY: Overcast sky. Rain, up to 20 mm at most elevations but mixed with snow at higher locales. Freezing level around 1600m Moderate winds with strong gusts from the east.THURSDAY: Overcast sky. Rain or snow depending on elevation, new snow amounts 5 - 15 cm. Freezing level around 1200m with alpine temperatures around zero or slightly above. Light to moderate Southerly winds.
Avalanche Summary
On Tuesday, the main concern will be isolated wind slab avalanches near the peaks where the recent precipitation fell as snow and was drifted by the wind. At tree line expect small loose wet avalanches in steep terrain if the sun appears for any length of time. Saturday's fatal avalanche on Mt Harvey (near Lion's Bay) was the result of people being on a cornice that failed. A large avalanche was subsequently triggered by the multi-ton snow boulders hitting the slope below.
Snowpack Summary
Saturday's cold stormy weather brought snow to the mountains as low as 800m. Temperatures have warmed slightly but freezing level near 1200m Sunday and Monday means it's still winter up high! Anywhere from 5 to 15 cm of snow fell within the region on Sunday & Monday. With mostly light winds there may be pockets of isolated wind slabs at higher elevations. The depth of recent new snow taper with elevation. At lower elevations, rain has saturated an already wet snowpack.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.