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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 8th, 2015–Apr 9th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Stick to higher shady slopes for the best snow, but keep the persistent slab problem in mind when choosing your line.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Mainly sunny. The freezing level climbs to around 2000-2200 m during the day and drops below 1500 m overnight. Winds are light and variable. Friday: Increasing cloud with snow possible late. The freezing level lowers to 1800 m and winds increase to moderate or strong from the S-SW. Saturday: Cloudy with periods of snow. The freezing level continues downward to around 1200-1400 m and winds are moderate from the SW.

Avalanche Summary

Moist loose avalanches have been reported on steep sun-exposed slopes, and one natural cornice fall (size 2) was reported on Monday. This cornice did not trigger a slab on the slope below.

Snowpack Summary

On shady slopes, 15-25 cm of cold low-density snow sits on a strong and supportive rain crust that was buried last Saturday and extends as high as 2100m. Expect an ongoing melt-freeze cycle on sun-exposed slopes. A facet/crust layer that was buried in mid-March is now approximately 50-100 cm down. Recently it was found down 55 cm near the Duffey Lake Road, and produced moderate sudden results. This remains a concern in the region because of it's potential for very large avalanches. Cornices are now large and mature and may collapse with daytime warming and intense sunshine.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.