Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Feb 11 – 12, 2016Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Avalanche danger is increasing with forecast new storms moving onto the coast.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2
    New wind slabs may develop with forecast new snow and wind. Wind slabs may not be well bonded to the new crust at higher elevations.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–4
    Large cornices may continue to develop with forecast new snow and wind. Rising freezing levels may increase the likelihood of cornices falling off naturally.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    3–6
    The deeply buried persistent weak layer of surface hoar has been reactive during and since the last storm in the north of the region. There is a great deal of uncertainty with regards to the distribution and the likelihood of triggering.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A series of Pacific disturbances are lining up to hit the coast over the next few days. Light-Moderate snowfall amounts are expected above the snow/rain line, and valley bottoms should be warm and rainy. The freezing level should stay around 1200 metres overnight and then rise to 1500 metres on Friday. Saturday morning should be a bit cooler as freezing levels drop down to about 900 metres and stay below 1400 metres all day. Warmer air associated with the Sunday storm should push freezing levels back up above 1700 metres. Heavy precipitation, strong southerly winds, and high freezing levels are forecast for Monday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. See MIN (Mountain Information Network) posts for avalanche activity during the last storm.

Snowpack Summary

Thin new crusts have formed on most aspects at higher elevations above moist snow, and above dry snow on northerly aspects. New surface hoar has been reported from the Coquihalla area, that may be buried down 5-10 cm. Conditions across the region are variable. Most areas have not had a freeze below treeline since the last wet storm. A crust that formed after a warm storm at the end of January is now down 50-80 cm. The deeply buried persistent weak layer from early January appears to be isolated to the north of the region. This weakness which lies between 60 and 130cm below the surface is still reactive at higher elevations in the Duffey, Hurley and Birkenhead areas. This layer continues to produce sudden results in snowpack tests and has been responsible for recent destructive avalanches.

Regions covered