Temperatures and solar radiation will steadily increase the avalanche danger through the day on Monday and Tuesday. Start early and finish early.
Weather Forecast
Monday and Tuesday will be progressively warmer. We expect good recovery on Monday night, but temperatures will continue to warm on Tuesday with the freezing level staying around 2400m into Wednesday. The weather is expected to deteriorate by Wednesday afternoon bringing some light precipitation with the warm temperatures.
Snowpack Summary
Pockets of wind slab are present in the upper alpine from previous strong winds last week. At treeline, lee aspects have a series of windslabs layered with thin weaknesses in the upper snowpack. A strong midpack bridges over weak basal facets on Northerly aspects at treeline and above.
Avalanche Summary
Several natural cornice failures to size 2.5 noted in the icefields area on North and Easterly aspects. Intense solar radiation will likely increase the cornice falls and initiate afternoon wet loose avalanche conditions in the next few days.
Confidence
Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday
Problems
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.