Early season obstacles exist just under the surface. Monday's precipitation, if significant amounts arrive, may be enough to increase the danger rating especially on windloaded slopes.
Weather Forecast
Series of frontal systems are expected. Strong ridgetop winds and possibly 10-20cm or more of snow with bulk being on Monday evening. A lull in fronts may occur Tuesday before 2nd weaker wave arrives in the evening.
Snowpack Summary
Variable snow distribution in the alpine ranging from 0 - 220cm. There is consistent coverage around 60cm at treeline and below with as low as 20cm in shallow spots. Two midpack crusts are provide surprisingly good skier support. Below treeline snow depths remain at less than critical levels.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been observed in the last 14 days; however, a healthy input of new snow may overload some weaknesses increasing the potential for avalanche activity. Monitor the incoming storm for amounts and windloading.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Monday
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.