With incoming weather and weak surface snow, a rapid progression to higher hazard could occur over the next few days. Watch snowfall amounts carefully.
Weather Forecast
Active weather crossed the divide early Monday with a warm front bringing light precip, moderate SW winds and a significant warming trend. About 15cm is expected by midday Tuesday. A second system Wednesday looks very similar with perhaps stronger winds. Expect new snow, warm temps, and strong winds to rapidly form slabs over the described snowpack
Snowpack Summary
20 to 30 cm of weak, faceted snow is bonding poorly to a variety of surfaces: suncrust SW to SE and previous wind effect open areas. Faceting also continues in the bottom 40 cm of the snowpack where depth hoar has now replaced old crusts, the slab of hard snow above this provides all of the strength to our snow pack but this is extremely variable.
Avalanche Summary
Widespread minor wind generated surface sluffing in steep terrain has gouged into some wind affected slopes to release very soft slabs that wind loading has created over the weak surface facets. Skiers in steep terrain will find very easy sluffing 20 to 30 cm deep. All of these events run far on the firm surfaces until they hit lower angle terrain.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.