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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 17th, 2014–Dec 18th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

If you are walking around today notice the large surface hoar that has been growing, and remember it on the weekend when they will become a real concern if the forecast snow arrives.

Weather Forecast

Today we should see increasing cloud with isolated flurries, light SW winds at ridge top, and an alpine high of -4'C. Thurs and Friday will be mostly cloudy with flurries, light but gusty SW winds and alpine highs of -1. The new snow will bury and preserve big surface hoar that will be an issue when the real snow comes over the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

New surface hoar, up to 2cm in size, is growing on a rain crust to 2100m and on settling snow above 2100m. Pockets of surface hoar that was buried in early Dec is down ~40cm, is spotty in distribution, but may be triggerable if present.  Well settled mid-pack with 30cm crust/facet basal weakness (Nov 9) observed in certain locations.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed since Dec 12th.

Confidence

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.