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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2019–Feb 15th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Remember, moderate means human triggered avalanches possible. Heightened avalanche conditions exist on specific terrain thus evaluate snow and terrain carefully.

Weather Forecast

Friday will be flurries, 6cm of snow, high of -7, and light ridge winds. Saturday will be clouds, sun, and flurries, trace amounts of snow, lows of -25 and highs of -11 with light East winds. A detailed mountain weather forecast is available from Avalanche Canada.

Snowpack Summary

Some wind affect noted in the alpine and at tree line. Due to the recent cold temperatures there seems to be no slab over the persistent weakness sitting down 35-45cm (surface hoar, crusts, and/or facets). The bottom of the snowpack is structurally weak especially in shallow snowpack areas, consisting primarily of facets and depth hoar.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches on Thursday with good visibility. On Wednesday, one notable windslab in the alpine stepping down to ground. Loose dry avalanches up to size 2 have been naturally triggered in the facetting snowpack in steep shallow areas.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Friday

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.