Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2018–Dec 16th, 2018

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

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While the chance of triggering a dangerous persistent slab avalanche in the West Slopes South zone is lower than surrounding areas, continue to travel cautiously above 6000 ft. If you experience collapsing, cracking in the snow, or see recent avalanches, avoid all open slopes 35 degrees or steeper. Lower in the terrain, avoid areas where a small loose wet avalanche could cause injury paired with terrain traps like exposed rocks and vegetation.

Discussion

Shallow and fresh wind slabs will form above treeline Saturday night and Sunday, but will not be listed in the main set of avalanche problems for Sunday. Watch for recently wind-drifted or actively wind-loading slopes if traveling in the alpine.

Snowpack Discussion

Regional Synopsis 20181214

We made it through our first strong winter storm and are headed into a weekend with dangerous and fickle avalanche conditions. Thick slabs of new snow (2-5 feet) are perched above a weak layer of faceted crystals. Avalanches triggered on this layer could be very large and life-threatening.

Reports continue to come in of very large natural and explosives triggered avalanches in the northern and eastern zones. For perspective, several of these slides have been classified as D3, or large enough to destroy a house.

Anyone accessing alpine areas should limit their exposure to areas where avalanches start, run and stop. In some places, the weak snow will talk to you by whumpfing and cracking. In other places, the heavy blanket of new snow is thick enough that it can give a false sense of stability while it masks the dangerous layering below.

Approximate snow totals from 12/10 - 12/14:

Mt. Baker: 55”
Washington Pass: 29”
Stevens Pass: 37”
Snoqualmie Pass: 28”
Paradise: 38”
Mt. Hood Meadows: 13”
Olympics: mostly rain

The change in the snowpack is pretty dramatic with elevation. Height of snow decreases rapidly below 4500’ at Baker and Washington Pass, 5500’ at Crystal/Rainier. The Passes have better low elevation coverage, but it's still pretty thin below 4000’. With additional warm storms in the forecast, this pattern is expected to continue for a while.

Be cautious and get home safe.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.