Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 5th, 2017–Apr 6th, 2017

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Wind slabs and cornices are a serious concern at higher elevations. Be cautious as you climb and continually reassess conditions.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Linger flurries with another 5-10 cm easing off through the day, southeast wind dropping to 25 km/h, freezing level up to 1200 m after an overnight freeze.FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, moderate southeast wind, freezing level up to 1400 m after an overnight freeze.SATURDAY: 5-10 cm of new snow, light southeast wind, freezing level around 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

Preliminary observations from Wednesday report several natural wind slabs in steep alpine features around Bear Pass (up to size 2.5). Several avalanches were triggered by cornice falls earlier in the week, including one size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche on the February weak layer. A snowmobiler had a close call with a cornice fall on the weekend at South Douglas (click here for MIN report).

Snowpack Summary

Touchy wind slabs exist as higher elevations, as Tuesday night's storm delivered 15-20 cm of snow above 1000 m with strong to extreme winds. Extensive wind affect is expected in exposed terrain. An overnight freeze will likely form a crust at lower elevations that will deteriorate with the heat of the day. It may still be possible to trigger a large avalanche on the late February persistent weak layer. This combination of weak facets and crusts is buried 100-150 cm deep. Recent snowpack tests found moderate sudden results on the layer in the May Creek area on an east aspect around 1200 m.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.