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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 20th, 2013–Jan 21st, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Due to variable snowpack conditions

Weather Forecast

The ridge of high pressure will continue to bring dry conditions until Wednesday at which point the region will see light to moderate snowfall. Winds are expected to remain generally light from the southwest. Alpine temperatures are expected to hover around 4.0 on Monday and Tuesday dropping to -5.0 on Wednesday.

Avalanche Summary

Recent observations mostly involve snowballing and wet loose sluffs to size 2 on sun-exposed slopes. Ongoing wet loose avalanche activity is quite likely with forecast warm temperatures.

Snowpack Summary

Above freezing temperatures at higher elevations have caused snow surfaces to moisten on sun-exposed slopes; however, a nightly crust recovery is likely with forecast clear skies. The surface snow on northerly aspects is dry and wind-pressed with continued surface hoar growth at lower elevations. 40-80 cm below the surface is a persistent weakness of buried surface hoar. No recent activity has been reported on this layer, but human triggering may be possible in isolated terrain, particularly with forecast warm temperatures. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer exists, which is now unlikely to be triggered, except perhaps by intense warming or by heavy triggers in steep, shallow, rocky terrain where more facetting has taken place.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.