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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 18th, 2013–Mar 19th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Columbia.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light to moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at 1200mWednesday: Moderate to heavy snowfall /  Strong to extreme southwest winds / Freezing level at 1500mThursday: Light snowfall / Light to moderate west winds / Freezing level at 900m

Avalanche Summary

A widespread slab avalanche avalanche cycle to size 2 took place on Sunday. The activity occurred in response to new snow and variable winds at all elevations. One notable occurrence was a size 3 slab avalanche which took place in the southeast corner of the region. The avalanche occurred on an east-northeast aspect at 2500m and was likely triggered by rapid loading from strong northwest winds. Observations were limited, but its size may suggest that a persistent weakness was the failure plane.

Snowpack Summary

Light to locally heavy amounts of new snow fell over the weekend and have have been distributed by northerly winds into deeper windslabs in lee terrain. These recent accumulations overlie a thick rain crust which is reported to extend up to 2000m. About 1m below the surface is a layer surface hoar or a sun crust buried on March 10th. Avalanche activity has become less likely at this interface; however, isolated natural activity and remote triggering is still occurring in some areas. At lower elevations where last week's heavy rain saturated the snowpack, subsequent cooling has formed crusts and has dramatically strengthened the snow.Weaknesses deeper in the snowpack have become unlikely to trigger.Widespread cornice development has also taken place, and cornices are reported to be very large and weak.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow and wind over the weekend created new wind slabs. Watch for loading on a variety of aspects due to variable wind directions. Recent winds also formed large cornices which may be large and destructive.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Avoid travelling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.>Do not travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

About 1m of snow overlies surface hoar or a sun crust buried on March 10th. Although triggering has become less likely, avalanches on this layer could be surprisingly large and destructive. Watch for increased reactivity with forecast sun on Tuesday.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6

Loose Wet

Forecast sun on Tuesday may pack enough punch to trigger loose wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. Reactivity may be higher do to the presence of a crust which currently underlies loose dry snow.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4