Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing of incoming weather is uncertain for the entire period

Friday: Strong W to SW winds. Alpine temp -5. Light snow starting late in the day.Saturday: Strong to gale SW winds. Alpine temp -6. Moderate to heavy snow. Sunday: Light SE winds. Alpine temp -13. Light snow.

On Wednesday, a snowmobile triggered a hard wind slab at the Sinclair snowmobiling area. It failed on the November crust/facet layer 30 cm above the ground. Evidence of a recent natural cycle was also reported. This deep crust/facet layer has been the failure plane for a number of large avalanches further to the west and was suspected to have failed at the Hankin-Evelyn area last weekend. Unfortunately, this weakness is unlikely to heal very quickly, so further deep avalanches are possible, especially as snow and wind-loading continue to stress the snowpack over the next few days.

Storm snow instabilities are likely to continue developing over the next few days as variable new snow layers build up. Spotty surface hoar is also buried in the upper snowpack, particularly in sheltered treeline areas. New and buried wind slabs are widespread and exist on a variety of alpine and exposed treeline slopes due to variable winds. Of key concern is a November facet/crust layer which can be found near the base of the snowpack. This layer, which is widespread, can be triggered from thin-spot trigger points, or with a heavy load, such as storm slabs stepping down, cornice fall or a snowmobile. It has the potential for very large, destructive avalanches and demands respect. A rain crust is buried in the upper snowpack at low elevations. In general the snowpack is highly variable in depth due to windy conditions this season.