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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 17th, 2016–Jan 18th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Light snowfall with ongoing strong winds are expected to continue to build new wind slabs.  Use extra caution in wind-affected terrain and watch for signs of wind loading.

Confidence

Low - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Another weak storm pulse should bring 4-8cm of new snowfall Sunday overnight and early Monday. Alpine winds should be moderate to strong from the south and freezing levels are expected to be 500-900m. A mix of sun and cloud is expected for Monday afternoon before another storm pulse arrives Monday overnight or Tuesday morning. Another 3-6cm of snowfall is expected for Tuesday with freezing levels around 700m and moderate to strong southerly alpine winds. Unsettled conditions are expected for Wednesday with light flurries and sunny breaks both possible.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, a ski cut produced a size 1.5 wind slab avalanche on a SW aspect at treeline north of New Hazelton. No new avalanches were reported on Friday. On Thursday, a couple of size 2 wind slab avalanches were reported from steep northwest aspects in the alpine. These occurred in the upper Kispiox area and were typically 40cm deep slabs.

Snowpack Summary

The region has a mix of wind slabs and developing storm slabs. In higher snowpack areas in the northwest of the region, the storm slab has become reactive to human triggers. In most other areas the wind slabs are thin and stiff. Buried surface hoar is layered through the thin snowpack, and cool temperatures as well as limited loading have preserved these weak layers. The mid pack that was reported to be well settled may have now facetted in the shallower areas, and the deeper basal layers are almost certainly facetted and weak. We have not heard of any full depth releases on weak basal layers yet.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New wind slabs are expected to form strong winds and light new snowfall continue.  Old stiffer wind slabs may also still be lingering around ridge crests.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs. >Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs. >Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow. >

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2