Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Snoqualmie Pass.
UPDATE: Increased avalanche danger in the near-treeline band to reflect new information.
A potent winter storm could develop very dangerous avalanche conditions, especially at mid and upper elevations, around Snoqualmie Pass Saturday. Steer away from any open slope greater than 35 degrees and limit your exposure to areas where larger avalanches could run or stop.
Discussion
Uncertainty with the weather forecast and its resulting snowpack leave several questions surrounding the avalanche forecast for Saturday. However, it’s hard to overlook the anticipated amount of precipitation and wind. Expect the avalanche danger to increase as you ascend in elevation and as more snow piles up. With such cold temperatures, any storm snow instability may take longer to heal.Â
Stormy conditions limited observations around Snoqualmie Pass Friday. In nearby Stevens Pass, several professionals reported widely propagating thin avalanches. It’s hard to say if this instability will linger, but if it does, avalanches could be large. Information Saturday morning, indicates a layer of weak snow may be found at the base of the recent storm snow. This layer could produce large natural avalanches, particularly at mid and upper elevations.Â
Snowpack Discussion
January 9th, 2020 (The regional synopsis is updated every Thursday @ 6 pm)
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As we said Happy New Year and rang in 2020, snow was turning to rain at many trailheads and lower elevation Passes, not exactly the fresh start winter recreationalists had in mind. The snowpack was already looking a little thin throughout the region, especially at lower elevations. Low snow in places like Snoqualmie Pass made backcountry travel difficult and hazardous. NWAC’s snow depth climatology report was showing snow depths 25-64% of normal to kick off the start of 2020.
Things can change quickly in the Pacific Northwest and they did as we entered an extended storm cycle between January 2nd to January 8th. Strong winds, fluctuating temperatures, and heavy precipitation offered few breaks in the weather over this period limiting observations and hampering travel. Despite periods of rain at lower elevations, most areas saw several feet of new snow with big jumps in total snow depths as a westerly storm track strongly favored the West Slopes of the Cascades and the Olympics for the highest precipitation totals.
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Location
Total Snow Depth (in) 1/2/20
Total Snow Depth (in) 1/8/20
Hurricane Ridge
31
51
Heather Meadows Mt Baker
55
95
Washington Pass
49
74
Stevens Pass
41
63
Snoqualmie Pass
22
33
Alpental mid-mountain
44
63
Crystal Mt Green Valley
40
66
Paradise Mt Rainier
54
105
White Pass Upper
43
69
Timberline
36
57
Mt Hood Meadows
36
53
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We may have started with a shallow snowpack, but most locations increased their snowpack by 70% or more over this storm cycle!
During this extended and impressive storm cycle that included backcountry avalanche warnings, natural avalanches were reported in many areas Jan 6th-7th.
The Stevens Pass area was especially active over the period with over 100(!) avalanche observations made on the 6th and 7th. Professionals reported numerous avalanches in places that they hadn't previously observed avalanches and some paths avalanched multiple times in a 24 hour period. Observers reported a few very large (size D2.5-3) avalanches, originating at upper elevations with deeper crowns that likely formed from wind drifting. Topping off an active couple of days, warming temperatures lead to a widespread loose wet avalanche cycle.
The southern Washington Cascades, the Wentachee Mountains and Mt. Hood either saw less precipitation, warmer temperatures leading to more rain than snow, or some combination of the two and ended up with relatively less active avalanche conditions than areas further north.Â
A large natural avalanche on Rock Mountain near Berne along Hwy 2 east of Stevens Pass that released Jan 6th or 7th. Photo: Josh Hirshberg 1/7/20
Many small storm slabs released in the Crystal backcountry 1/6-1/7. Pinwheels in the photo suggest loose wet avalanche activity occurred when temperatures rose above freezing and snow turned to rain.
Another active and colder weather pattern is on it’s way. Enjoy yourself out there and be sure to check the forecast before heading out. Remember, NWAC is a community-supported avalanche center and when you submit an observation you make the forecast better!
-Peter Moore
It’s getting deeper! Photo: Jeremy Allyn
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
When major winter storms continue to impact the areas like this, it’s time to dial it way back and avoid any open slope greater than 35 degrees. As you travel don’t forget about the start zones above you. Limit your exposure to any large avalanche path. As more snow accumulates, some of these snowpacks could reach a tipping point and produce large natural avalanches.
You can investigate the storm slab in areas away from avalanche terrain. Do you see strong over weak snow? Do you see shooting cracks? Do small slopes or up-tracks produce micro avalanches? When they do, you have storm slabs. Evidence of a slab in any location, likely means it is present and larger as you ascend.
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1