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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 9th, 2020–Jan 10th, 2020
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Coast.

Continuing snowfall and strong southwest wind will increase the avalanche danger throughout the day. This storm will deliver 40 to 60 cm of snow even in lower elevations. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with flurries, up to 10 cm snow accumulation, light westerly wind, treeline temperature -6 C, freezing level at 500 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation of 30 to 50 cm, strong southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level rising to 1000 m in the late afternoon.

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with snowfall, accumulation of 30 to 50 cm, moderate westerly wind, treeline temperature -3 C, freezing level at 600 m. 

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation of 20 to 35 cm, moderate westerly wind, treeline temperature -7, freezing level at 600 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday a few natural wet loose avalanches up to size 1.5 were observed.

Storm slabs were reactive to human traffic on Monday. It is likely that a natural avalanche cycle occurred Monday night as the snow switched to rain.

Snowpack Summary

This storm will bring snow totals of 40 to 60 cm by Friday evening. With the cold temperatures even lower elevations down to 500 m will receive snow. Most precipitation of the previous storm on Tuesday fell as rain below about 1500 m. 

There is uncertainty how well the new snow will bond with the old snow surface. Assess the bond of the recent snow before committing to avalanche terrain and travel conservatively.

Terrain and Travel

  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

With 10 cm overnight and 30 to 50 cm during the day on Friday snow totals can reach 60 cm by Friday evening. This storm will deliver snow with cold temperatures down to an elevation of 500 m. Combined with strong southwest winds during the day the avalanche danger will increase with continuing snowfall throughout the day. Assess the bond of the new snow before committing to avalanche terrain and travel conservatively.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5