Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 21st, 2021 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Cornices.

Avalanche Canada shorton, Avalanche Canada

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Don't let the new snow lure you into consequential avalanche terrain, human triggered avalanches will be likely on Monday.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

A cool northwest flow starts in the wake of the Sunday night storm.

SUNDAY NIGHT: 15-20 cm of snow overnight at the trailing end of the storm, 40-50 km/h south wind, freezing level around 1000 m with treeline temperatures around -2 C. 

MONDAY: Mostly sunny with some brief flurries, 20-30 km/h northwest wind, freezing level drops to 600 m with treeline temperatures around -2 C.

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, 20-30 km/h west wind, treeline temperatures around -3 C.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing 10-15 cm of snow, 30-50 km/h southwest wind, freezing level climbing to 1200 m with treeline temperatures around -1 C.

Avalanche Summary

Storm slabs will grow rapidly on Sunday night with some natural activity likely during the peak of the storm in the evening. See this MIN report that shows storm slab reactivity increasing during the day on Sunday.

These slabs will gradually strengthen throughout the day on Monday, but human triggered slabs are still a concern and it will be important to carefully monitor the reactivity of storm snow through the day.

Snowpack Summary

As the storm eases on Monday morning there will be 30-50 cm of fresh storm snow. Amounts will likely increase dramatically with elevation. The snow is should strengthen relatively quickly when storm ends, but storm slabs will still be a concern throughout the day. North facing slopes likely have thicker slabs due to wind loading. 

Along ridgelines, cornices are large and always have the potential of failing or being triggered from the weight of a human.

Terrain and Travel

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

30-50 cm of snow from Sunday's storm will leave storm slabs on steep and wind loaded slopes. While these slabs are expected to strengthen quickly, they will likely remain reactive to human triggering on Monday.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Cornices

An icon showing Cornices

Cornices are large and looming along many ridgelines, and have likely grown with the recent snow and wind.

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Mar 22nd, 2021 4:00PM