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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 21st, 2021–Mar 22nd, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Don't let the new snow lure you into consequential avalanche terrain, human triggered avalanches will be likely on Monday.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

A cool northwest flow starts in the wake of the Sunday night storm.

SUNDAY NIGHT: 15-20 cm of snow overnight at the trailing end of the storm, 40-50 km/h south wind, freezing level around 1000 m with treeline temperatures around -2 C. 

MONDAY: Mostly sunny with some brief flurries, 20-30 km/h northwest wind, freezing level drops to 600 m with treeline temperatures around -2 C.

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, 20-30 km/h west wind, treeline temperatures around -3 C.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing 10-15 cm of snow, 30-50 km/h southwest wind, freezing level climbing to 1200 m with treeline temperatures around -1 C.

Avalanche Summary

Storm slabs will grow rapidly on Sunday night with some natural activity likely during the peak of the storm in the evening. See this MIN report that shows storm slab reactivity increasing during the day on Sunday.

These slabs will gradually strengthen throughout the day on Monday, but human triggered slabs are still a concern and it will be important to carefully monitor the reactivity of storm snow through the day.

Snowpack Summary

As the storm eases on Monday morning there will be 30-50 cm of fresh storm snow. Amounts will likely increase dramatically with elevation. The snow is should strengthen relatively quickly when storm ends, but storm slabs will still be a concern throughout the day. North facing slopes likely have thicker slabs due to wind loading. 

Along ridgelines, cornices are large and always have the potential of failing or being triggered from the weight of a human.

Terrain and Travel

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

30-50 cm of snow from Sunday's storm will leave storm slabs on steep and wind loaded slopes. While these slabs are expected to strengthen quickly, they will likely remain reactive to human triggering on Monday.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Cornices

Cornices are large and looming along many ridgelines, and have likely grown with the recent snow and wind.

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3