Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Little Yoho.
It looks like a warm, windy, stormy day on Saturday. It is probably a good day to stay conservative with your terrain choices, and minimize exposure to overhead hazard. Recently any small changes in weather inputs have triggered large avalanches.
Weather Forecast
Between 5 and 10cm of snow is forecast for Saturday with strong west winds. Freezing levels will hover between 1600 and 2000m with valley highs around 6'C. A cooling and clearing trend will start on Sunday.
Snowpack Summary
10-20cm of recent snow sits on a well settled mid-pack. In shallow areas (Field ice climbs) the base is weak and facetted. Shears persist on this facet interface. In deeper areas (Little Yoho Valley), the deep weak layers are less of a concern. Surface snow is soft in the shade, sun crust on solar aspects, and melt-freeze snow below treeline,
Avalanche Summary
A few loose wet slides were reported on Friday from the local ski areas. These occurred below treeline on South and West aspects in steep terrain as the day warmed up.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
The snowpack is stabilizing after the last avalanche cycle, and now we are left with a low probability, high consequence problem. Natural avalanches have mostly ceased, but triggering is still possible - especially from large loads like cornices.
- Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 4
Wind Slabs
If the new snow and strong West winds come through as forecast, we will likely see new wind slabs forming and increased cornice growth on Saturday. Treat lee areas with caution and avoid terrain with large cornices overhead until the winds ease.
- Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.
Aspects: North, North East, East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2