Avalanche Forecast

Clear weather with outflow winds for most of the forecast period. The coldest temperatures and highest winds may be at valley bottom. Winds are forecasted to increase significantly from the west as the next weather system moves in on Tuesday.

Saturday Night: Clear. No new snow expected. Light northeast winds, trending to north at higher elevations. Alpine temperature around -10 °C.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, scattered cloud in the afternoon. No new snow expected. Light northerly winds. Alpine temperature around -10 °C.

Monday: Sunny. No new snow expected. Light to moderate northeast winds, trending to strong north at higher elevations. Alpine temperature around -10 °C. 

Tuesday: Partly cloudy in the morning, mostly cloudy by the afternoon. Light to moderate snowfall starting in the afternoon. Strong west wind, trending to extreme at higher elevations. Possible temperature inversion resulting in temperatures warmer than -5 °C above 1500m.

West of Ningunsaw, a size 1.5 naturally triggered wind slab avalanche was reported on Saturday on a south aspect around 1250 m.

Wind slabs in lee features formed on Friday or Saturday may be reactive to the weight of a rider, especially in sheltered areas, where they may sit on top of weak, feathery, surface hoar crystals buried on December 17th. 

Older wind slabs may be found on all aspects due to recent variable winds, and could be harder to trigger, but would produce larger avalanches. 

The December 7th surface hoar problem appears to be less of a concern than earlier this week, but have a good read of our recent forecaster's blog before you get too hasty about removing it from your decision-making process.

5-10 cm of recent snow has likely built thin wind slabs on westerly aspects. This new snow is falling on a surface that was observed to be facets, or surface hoar up to 12 mm. While it may not produce numerous, large avalanches, this layer could prove to be touchy if a rider hits an unsupported spot with a dense enough slab on top of it.

There is a great post on the Backtalk Facebook page from Saturday about some localized conditions outside of Terrace. 

Given the variable nature of the recent wind, buried wind slabs should be expected on all aspects in exposed terrain.

The December 7 persistent weak layer is now typically down 50-70 cm, though some professional operations are saying that it is getting harder to find. This interface may include a crust, facets, and/or surface hoar.

Snowpack depths vary greatly across the region, expect to find anywhere from 100-300 cm of snow around treeline.

• Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
• Start with simple terrain and gather information before thinking about more committing features.
• Avoid terrain traps where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
• In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.