Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Saturday night: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow, strong southwest wind with extreme gusts in the alpine, treeline temperatures dropping to -2 C, freezing level near 800 m.

Sunday: Cloudy, 5-10 cm of snow, strong southwest wind with extreme gusts in the alpine, treeline high temperature near 0 C, freezing level rising to 1200 m. 

Monday: Mainly cloudy, 20-35 cm of snow, moderate west winds increasing to strong in the alpine, treeline high temperature near -4 C, freezing level dropping to 800 m.

Tuesday: Cloudy, 15-35 cm of snow, strong southwest winds with extreme gusts in the alpine, treeline high temperatures near -1 C, freezing level rising to 1000 m. 

Overnight on Saturday, there were reports of large to very large (size 2-3.5) wind slab avalanches releasing naturally, primarily in areas north in the region. Operators also reported the beginnings of a natural loose wet avalanche cycle at low elevations. 

Near Terrace, explosives continue to trigger large (size 2-2.5) avalanches. These avalanches have propagated widely across terrain and have likely failed on a weak layer from early February. 

Since Wednesday, the mountains have picked up 20-35 cm of snow near Terrace and 40-65 cm in areas north in the region. In the last 24 hours, strong to extreme southwest winds have rapidly redistributed the recent snow into reactive slabs at upper elevations. 

The recent snow sits above a variety of surfaces, including a crust, sugary facets, and layer of feathery surface hoar (buried February 2nd). This particular storm interface continues to remain suspect as it is unlikely to bond well, and it has increased potential to produce avalanches that fracture widely across terrain. The crust can be found at or below treeline as well as on south-facing terrain in the alpine. Facets likely formed on colder aspects, and surface hoar may be found in isolated sheltered terrain at treeline. Below around 1200m, the upper snowpack is wet to moist over these surfaces.

Deeper in the snowpack, a surface hoar layer from mid-January may still be found down 70-100 cm at upper elevations in sheltered terrain. Recent reports indicate that it is becoming less of a concern.

• Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
• Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
• Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
• Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
• In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.