Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

A series of storms are set to hit the region in the next few days. Moderate to heavy snowfalls, rising freezing levels, and warmers temperatures are expected until mid-week. The west and north parts of the region will receive the heaviest amount of snowfalls.

Sunday night: Snow 5-10 cm overnight. Freezing level around 600 m. Alpine temperatures around -6 C. Moderate southwesterly winds gusting 50 km/h.

Monday: Snow 15-25 cm + 15-25 cm overnight. Freezing level rising to 1200 m. Alpine temperatures around -3 C. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds.

Tuesday: Snow 10-15 cm. Freezing level rising to 1600 m. Alpine temperatures 

around -2 C. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds.

Wednesday: Flurries up to 5 cm. Freezing level rising to 1400 m. Alpine temperatures around -4 C. Light to moderate southwesterly winds.

A skier remotely triggered a large (size 2) wind slab near Keefer Lake on a north east facing cross-loaded feature at upper treeline. This avalanche was triggered from a distance, suggesting that persistent layers were involved. Few natural wind slabs also produced size 1.5-2 avalanches on Saturday.

In the Valhallas, a large persistent slab (size 2) was triggered by a skier on a northeast terrain feature at treeline. The avalanche picked up loose snow and ran for 400 m long. Few natural persistent slabs avalanches were reported to have failed on the mid-February weak layer/ crust combo.

With the current storm, avalanche activity will likely increase, and a natural cycle is expected late Monday / early Tuesday.

10-20 cm of fresh snow has fallen Sunday throughout the region, with favoured amounts in the Monashees. This new snow is now burying a variety of surfaces including heavily wind-affected surfaces on most alpine slopes, fresh wind slabs on any open features, thin sun crust on steep south-facing slopes at all elevations, and widespread large feathery surface hoar crystal on sheltered areas. Below ~1200 m, 30-50 cm of snow is now overlying a thick melt-freeze crust. 

Two weak layers exist within the upper snowpack: the mid-February layer (down 70 to 120 cm) and the mid-January layer (down 100 cm). They both consist of surface hoar / melt-freeze crust. Although reactivity of these layers had tapered off lately, they should be treated with extra caution with this incoming series of snowfalls as they may produce large, unexpected avalanches.

• Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
• Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
• Good day to make conservative terrain choices.