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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 14th, 2018–Dec 15th, 2018
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

New snow will take time to stabilize. Now is the time to avoid avalanche terrain.

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries will bring trace amounts of precipitation today. Freezing levels rise to 1600m with an alpine temperature of -2.0. Watch for strong southerly winds near ridge top this afternoon. After a clearing trend this weekend, another series of pacific systems will bring fresh loads of snow for early next week.

Snowpack Summary

40cm of new snow fell last night and throughout yesterday, bringing the 5-day storm total to over 110cm. Several instabilities exists within the storm snow.  The December 10th surface hoar, crust and facet layer is down 100cm. The November 21st persistent weak layer is down 120-160cm. Height of snow at treeline is approx 2m, and 1m at Rogers Pass.

Avalanche Summary

Artillery avalanche control produced several large avalanches (size 3-3.5) that terminated near the bottom of their run-outs. We suspect that there was a widespread natural avalanche cycle in the backcountry as storm conditions peaked near noon yesterday.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

110cm of storm snow contains several instabilities and is poorly bonded to the Dec 9 interface. The storm has subsided, but slab formation continues with rising temperatures and strong winds. These slabs will be easy for skiers and riders to trigger.
Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3