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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 1st, 2017–Mar 2nd, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Columbia.

Look for a range of touchy avalanche problems developing as the stormy weather continues. Lower elevations won't be immune.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Winds moderate to strong from the southwest. Freezing level to 1300 metres with alpine temperatures of -7.Friday: Periods of snow bringing another 10-15 cm of new snow. Winds strong to extreme from the southwest. Freezing level to 1300 metres with alpine temperatures of -5.Saturday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Winds moderate from the southwest. Freezing level to 1200 metres with alpine temperatures of -6.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Tuesday include natural Size 1 cornice, storm slab, and wind slab releases, as well as two remote triggered Size 1 wind slabs. One storm slab and one cornice were observed releasing naturally to Size 2. These occurrences took place on a range of aspects, but most of them shared unsupported, steeper, alpine terrain as a common feature.On Sunday, small avalanches in the new snow were reported including natural and skier triggered size 1 wind slabs on a variety of aspects. Sluffing in steep terrain was widespread. A few size 2 natural avalanches were also reported in alpine terrain, potentially releasing on the mid-February interface 30-40 cm deep. Looking forward, ongoing snowfall and increasing winds are expected to promote new wind slab activity at treeline and in the alpine on Thursday. Increasing caution is also warranted at lower elevations where new snow is building both slab and loose dry avalanche hazards.

Snowpack Summary

A wide-ranging 10-37 cm of new snow fell over the region over Tuesday night, with the greatest accumulations occurring in the eastern Monashees. The new snow has buried fairly widespread faceted surface snow as well as more isolated surface hoar to 4mm. A thin sun crust may exist below the new snow on steep solar aspects. About 40-80cm below the surface you'll likely find the mid-February interface which is composed of a thick rain crust up to about 1800 m, sun crusts on steep solar aspects, and spotty surface hoar on shaded aspects. This layer could develop into a persistent slab problem once the snow above it settles into a stiffer slab. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and stable.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Ongoing snowfall and strong southwest winds will form reactive wind slabs at treeline and in the alpine on Thursday. Both slab and loose dry avalanche hazards are also increasing as snow piles up at lower elevations where the winds are weaker.
Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2