Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Watch for signs of reactivity from a buried surface hoar layer that is at the ideal depth for human triggering at tree line and in the alpine, factor this into your terrain decisions.
Good riding can be found in conservative terrain above tree line.
Early season hazards are still prevalent at lower elevations, travel with caution.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Natural avalanche activity has tapered since the weekend's snowfall. However, human triggering remains a concern on slopes that have not already avalanched.
On Friday a group remotely triggered a size 2 avalanche on a steep rocky roll from 20m away along the ridge near Balu Pass.
Snowpack Summary
25-45cm of recent snow sits on top of a rain crust up to 2100m.
Surface hoar is buried down 60-80cm and continues to give 'sudden' results in snowpack tests and whumpfs in untraveled terrain.
The base of the snowpack is facetted at upper elevations.
The height of snow at treeline is ~130cm, which is below average for this time of year, watch out for early-season hazards.
Weather Summary
A ridge of high pressure will give calm dry weather mid week with light winds and no appreciable precip until Thursday.
Tuesday: Sun and cloud, winds light from SW, high of -2 °C, freezing level 1400m.
Wednesday: Sun and cloud, isolated flurries, winds light to moderate from SW, low -6 °C high of -2 °C, freezing level 1400m.
Thursday: Up to 8cm is forecast with light winds, low -6 °C.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
- Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
A buried crust (felt by pole probing) has bridged this problem at lower elevations. Pay careful attention to when this crust disappears (~2100m). If there is no crust, there will be a higher likelihood of triggering the persistent weak layer (Dec 1 surface hoar) buried by 60-80cm of snow.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Loose Dry
Expect loose snow avalanches to run in steep terrain. These could gain significant mass once they have the momentum to scrub down to the crust.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2