Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 26th, 2013–Feb 27th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Windslabs remain the greatest concern with persistent westerly winds in the moderate range.  As the week progresses and forecast warming occurs it may become necessary to pay close attention to the effects of daytime heating on solar aspects.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Temperatures at 3000m cool in the -15 deg range until midday Thursday when they begin to climb to the -5 deg range.  A chance of a quick pulse of new snow on Wednesday night but amounts of only 2-4cm likely.  Moderate westerly winds increasing to strong/extreme by Wednesday night into Thursday and after that the winds really go to town with the warmer air and are forecast to top over 100 km/h by Friday.

Avalanche Summary

Several loose dry sluffs to Size 1.5 from steeper lee aspects with small cornice failures the trigger for some

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow from past few days slowly adding up with 10-15cm low density snow in sheltered areas.  Several test profiles done today with consistent results - CTM14-16 (PC) down @15+ cm on top of old windslabs and CTH24 (SP) down 30-35cm on Jan hardslab interface.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Soft slabs at treeline and have become more sensitive to human triggering, especially in lee and cross-loaded features just below ridgeline. Alpine areas are scoured with areas of hard slab and soft slab. Increased cornice development taking place. 
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Avoid steep slopes below cornices.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Persistent Slabs

Buried wind slabs (originally formed in late January) are still are concern in steep features in the alpine and at treeline. These slabs are found down 30 to 60cm in the snowpack and are likely more trigger-able from shallow snowpack areas.
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4