Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Waterton Lakes.
Windslabs are widespread and ripe for human triggering. Though the weather is improving don't be tempted into committing terrain by blue skies, and continue to avoid overhead hazard, especially on solar aspects.
Weather Forecast
Thursday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Moderate NW winds, alpine high of -12
Friday: Cloudy with sunny periods and an alpine inversion. Strong to Extreme W winds, alpine high 0 early in the morning dropping to -5 in the afternoon
Saturday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Moderate NW winds, alpine high -5
Snowpack Summary
Expect to find at least 30cm of new snow redistributed by strong SW winds, with wet snow freezing into a crust near the surface below 2000m. Upper elevations are heavily wind affected, and new windslabs will be found in lee areas. The Dec 9th crust can be found down 70-100cm at Cameron Lake. Areas east of the divide hold a thin & faceted snowpack.
Avalanche Summary
Several size 2-2.5 avalanches were observed on a road patrol of the Akamina Parkway on Wednesday that likely failed during the warmest part of the storm.
Confidence
Due to the number of field observations
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
New snow combined with strong winds has formed reactive slabs. As the wind switches to northerly on Thursday, we will see reverse loading with wind slabs forming outside of usual lee features.
- Watch for fresh storm slabs on exposed lee slopes and open areas at all elevations.
- Avoid freshly wind loaded features.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
Added load from the recent storm could increase the possibility of triggering deeper weak layers in thin snowpack areas. They could also be triggered by cornice fall or smaller avalanches stepping down in thicker snowpack areas.
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
- Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger the persistent slab.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3