Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Clear skies and warming temps are in the forecast for today, lather up with sun screen, don't forget your shades, and expect avalanches to become more likely into the afternoon.
Weather Forecast
A warm upper ridge over the Pacific is beginning to move in from the west, which will flush out the Arctic air in our area today. Temperatures are forecast to warm rapidly through the day, treeline temps are currently -21 and forecast to climb to -7 into the afternoon. Clear skies and calm winds will cause solar aspects to heat up quickly.
Snowpack Summary
Strong NE winds Friday-Saturday built windslabs in unusual places. The Mar. 10th interface of suncrust on all solar aspects and small surface hoar on shaded slopes, is now buried down 20-40cms. The Feb 22 persistent weak layer is down 90-130cm and consists of 3-7mm surface hoar on all aspects up to 2450m as well as a crust on solar aspects.
Avalanche Summary
A small natural avalanche occured in Cougar corner path #2 yesterday (S aspect below treeline).
Isolated instances of skiers triggering the February 22nd weak layer continue to occur in neighboring areas.
Confidence
Due to the number of field observations
Avalanche Problems
Loose Dry
With temperatures rising rapidly this afternoon, loose snow may become reactive on steep solar aspects.
- Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
- Use extra caution on slopes if the surface snow is moist.
Aspects: South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Wind Slabs
Daytime warming will increase the sensitivity of the wind slabs that formed during yesterdays strong N-NE winds. These may overlie a suncrust on steep solar aspects and possibly small surface hoar on shaded slopes.
- If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- 894
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Persistent Slabs
The February 22 surface hoar/sun crust layer is down 90-130cm. Skier-triggering is possible in shallower areas but otherwise this layer will take a big trigger to be activated such as a small avalanche stepping down or large load impacting the slope.
- Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack
- Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5