Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 2nd, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

rbuhler, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Heavy snowfall and strong winds are expected to quickly raise the danger to HIGH on Sunday.

A solar-triggered avalanche cycle is also possible on Sunday afternoon if the sky clears and the sun is strong.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Stormy conditions are expected between Saturday night and Monday night expect for a brief period late Sunday afternoon when a break between systems is expected. Snowfall amounts are uncertain with weather models showing substantial variability.

Saturday Night: Snowfall 10-20 cm, strong SW wind, freezing level low around 1000 m.

Sunday: Snowfall 25-40 cm, sunny breaks in the late-afternoon, strong SW wind easing in the afternoon, freezing level high around 1200 m.

Sunday night and Monday: Snowfall 50-80 cm, strong to extreme SW wind, freezing level high around 1300 m.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud, strong NW wind easing in the afternoon, freezing level high around 1100 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported in the past few days but observations have been limited.

If you are getting out in the backcountry, please consider sharing your observations to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

The storm snow is burying a widespread, supportive melt-freeze crust. Strong southwest wind will be redistributing this new snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming touchy wind slabs. Lower elevations are expected to see a mix of wet snow and rainfall, and wet loose avalanche should be expected.

The middle and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs are expected to become touchy and widespread as the storm progresses, especially in wind-loaded terrain. A natural avalanche cycle should be expected in areas which receive the most snowfall.

Solar-triggered storm slabs are also possible on sun-exposed slopes if the sun makes an appearance on Sunday afternoon.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Loose Wet

Rain at lower elevations will destabilize the upper snowpack. Loose wet avalanches are most likely at elevations where rain soaks new snowfall overlying a hard melt-freeze crust.

If the sun makes an appearance Sunday afternoon, solar-triggered wet loose avalanches should be expected on sun-exposed slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Apr 3rd, 2022 4:00PM