Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 22nd, 2016–Jan 23rd, 2016
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

A warm storm has arrived and the natural avalanche cycle is underway. 

Weather Forecast

The warm and windy storm has arrived,15cm of storm snow overnight with another 20cm possible today.  Freezing levels are expected to rise to 1700m accompanied by moderate to strong SW winds.  By Saturday lowering  freezing levels light flurries and moderate ridge top winds are expected.

Snowpack Summary

A soft slab sits on top of the Jan 4th interface.  The Jan 4th layer consists of surface hoar over facets on northerly aspects and surface hoar over sun crust on steeper S through SW aspects.  It appears to be touchiest where the slab resides over surface hoar/sun crust combo in our area.  Warming temperatures will settle and stiffen the slab.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity increased yesterday afternoon with five avalanches off of Mt MacDonald in the size 2.5 to size 3 range with the size 3 running to the bottom of the runout. 

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The storm is upon us with 15cm snow overnight and another 20cm expected today.  Overloading and failure of the soft slab over the Jan 4th weak layer is expected today resulting in an avalanche cycle.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3