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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 12th, 2015–Feb 13th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Warm temperatures will persist until later in the weekend, keeping avalanche problems active.  Extra caution is required during periods of precipitation or sun.

Weather Forecast

A weak front will bring isolated flurries today and rain below 1800m.  A wetter front will move in late friday bringing up to 10cm of wet snow by Saturday morning.  Freezing levels are expected to dip to seasonal norms later in the weekend as we set up for a high pressure period.

Snowpack Summary

20cm of moist snow sits on top of 1m of settled storm snow over the Jan 30 layer. This layer formed a crust to 2200m with spotty surface hoar distribution. Jan 15 surface hoar layer is down 100-150cm and continues to be reactive in tests.

Avalanche Summary

A size 2 loose wet avalanche was observed yesterday in the highway corridor on Tupper Minor avalanche path east of Rogers Pass.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Avalanches are easily triggered below 1800m where wet snow runs on a crust. The forecast is for clouds, but should the sun emerge expect natural avalanches from steep solar aspects.  Loose avalanches can gain mass and momentum quickly.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Be very cautious with gully features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers within the top 150cm of the snowpack should not be forgotten, especially while temperatures remain warm. Smaller avalanches or cornice failures may step down and propagate on these deep instabilities.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 4