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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 6th, 2016–Mar 7th, 2016
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Conservative route selection, group management and terrain use are needed today given the elevated avalanche danger.

Weather Forecast

The storm continues through today bringing another 10cm+ to alpine elevations along with moderate SW winds.  Freezing levels are expected to rise to 1800m today making for moist snow conditions at lower elevations. 

Snowpack Summary

Another 7cm of snow at 1900m overnight. 70cm of storm snow overlies the Feb 27 interface which is a crust on solar aspects, and surface hoar/stellars on northerly aspects. Lee slopes feature large cornices with reactive windslabs downslope. Feb 10th surface hoar/crust is down 100cm+ and has been unreactive to tests. Moist snow below 1900m.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread avalanche cycle occurred yesterday mostly in the size 2-2.5 range. These slides were moist and were running to mid run out in most cases. The avalanche cycle is expected to continue today with freezing levels rising to 1800m, 12cm of snow forecast for higher elevations and moderate SW winds.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong southerly winds have formed reactive slabs on lee features. Expect to find these slabs on northerly aspects near ridgline and crossloaded features.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The Feb 27 crust/surface hoar layer down 70cm produces sudden results in stability tests.  If triggered this layer could propagate into a large avalanche.  Continued warm temperatures could see this layer failing as a moist slab at lower elevations.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Large cornices have been formed by strong winds and storm snow.  Warm temperatures and continued loading may be enough to cause cornice failure.  Cornice fall has the potential to trigger persistent slabs on slopes below with large consequences.
Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3