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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 9th, 2018–Jan 10th, 2018
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Avalanches have the potential to run full path today. Group management is paramount, keep an eye out for other groups above or below you, and always watch your buddy!

Weather Forecast

Another 5-10cm is forecasted today, with an alpine high of -4 degrees and the freezing levels could reach 1600m. Winds are currently light but expected to kick up around noon as a cold front passes over Rogers Pass. Precipitation could taper off tomorrow and temps will cool as an Alberta-high pressure system battles it's way from the North East.

Snowpack Summary

40cm of storm snow now buries the Jan 4 interface and the Dec 15 surface hoar (PWL) is down ~70cm. Yesterday we reached the tipping point of storm snow over weak layers. Snowpack tests showed propagation potential and a high likelihood for skier triggering. The Dec 15th Surface Hoar layer is most reactive at tree line and below.

Avalanche Summary

Natural slab avalanche cycle to size 3 yesterday in the Highway Corridor stopping in the fan. Skier accidental size 2, failing on the Dec 15th PWL in the Asulkan drainage. 1 full burial party self-extricated. Several skier controlled avalanches to size 1.5 reported from the backcountry and skier remotes from 10m away, failing on the Jan 4 layer.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

40+cm of storm snow over the past 48hrs is settling into a slab with warm temperatures (-1 to -5). The Jan 4 surface hoar is down ~45cm and found to be up to 15mm in size. If triggered, small avalanches could step down to the Dec 15th PWL!
If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The Dec 15th PWL is widespread around tree line and below tree line, buried ~80cm. New snow and warm temps have slabbed up the upper snow pack! This interface became reactive yesterday, burying one skier in a terrain trap.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3