Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Purcells.
Strong westerly wind combined with up to 25 cm of new snow has likely formed wind slabs which will be most problematic near ridge crest. The weak & highly variable snowpack likely needs more time to adjust. Avoid wind loaded slopes and terrain traps Tuesday.
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
MONDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, light northwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.
TUESDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, light variable breeze, no significant precipitation expected.
WEDNESDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, moderate east/northeast wind, no significant precipitation expected.
THURSDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level at valley bottom, moderate east/northeast wind, no significant precipitation expected.
Avalanche Summary
We received a report of a skier controlled avalanche on a north facing alpine feature in the central portion of the region late Sunday. The size 2 wind slab avalanche was about 20 cm deep. Other than that, no recent avalanche activity has been reported. There may have been a natural avalanche cycle Saturday night into Sunday in the northern portion of the region. If you were out this weekend please let us know what you were seeing on the MIN!
Snowpack Summary
Winter is slowly creeping down to the valley. Snowpack depths range from about 10 to 120 cm. The weekend storm produced 10 to 25 cm of snow accompanied by strong west, southwest & northwest wind. Storm snow accumulations are greatest in the north of the region.
The young snowpack is highly variable due to previous wind transport and areas of shallow snow which are highly faceted. Most treeline and below treeline areas are probably below threshold for avalanches at this time. A potentially problematic melt freeze crust from late October can be found above basal facets in the lower snowpack. There's a great "pre-weekend-storm" summary of current conditions in the Golden area here.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
The weekend storm produced 10 to 25 cm of snow accompanied by strong west, southwest & northwest wind which likely formed widespread storm slabs in the north of the region. These slabs rest on a variety of weak layers which will likely keep them susceptible to human triggering this week, especially in bigger terrain near ridge crest.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
Very little is known about some of the crusts in the lower snowpack at this time, but current riding conditions may push folks into the alpine where there is potential for riders to initiate avalanches failing on one of the more deeply buried crusts.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5