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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2017–Feb 15th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

The heavy rain over the next few days will make the snowpack unstable. Conservative terrain use and avoiding overhead hazard is critical.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Warm and wet on Wednesday - Thursday. Cooling with light precipitation on Friday. WEDNESDAY: Rain (50-70mm) / Strong southerly winds becoming moderate / Freezing level around 2000m / High temperatures to +4 Celsius. THURSDAY: Rain (30-50mm) / Moderate southeasterly winds / Freezing level around 1900 m. FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries (local accumulations 10-15cm) / High temperatures to +1 Celsius / Light-moderate southerly winds / Freezing level around 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

Small loose wet avalanches to Size 1.5 were observed on steep solar (south) aspects on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

The snow from late last week (15-25cm) has consolidated well at treeline and below. This makes 50-70 cm of cumulative storm snow which so far has been bonding well to a knife hard crust buried Feb 3rd. That said, recent snowpack tests near the Cypress ski area gave sudden planar, propagation-likely results down 70cm on the Feb 3rd widespread crust layer. This may become a sliding layer on Wednesday with the heavy rain.In the alpine, where the precipitation fell as snow, the storm slabs have taken longer to settle out and still are a concern: Dig down to test the bond of the more recent snow layers. The mid and lower snowpack are settled and well bonded with the average snowpack depth at treeline 250-300 cm.

Avalanche Problems

Wet Slabs

Heavy rain will saturate the upper snowpack and may trigger wet slab avalanche release on the widespread Feb 3rd crust, down 50-70cm.
Avoid areas with overhead hazard.Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3