Summary
Confidence
Fair - Due to variable snowpack conditions
Weather Forecast
The ridge of high pressure will continue to bring dry conditions until Wednesday at which point the region will see light to moderate snowfall. Winds are expected to remain generally light from the southwest. Alpine temperatures are expected to hover around 4.0 on Monday and Tuesday dropping to -5.0 on Wednesday.
Avalanche Summary
Recent observations mostly involve snowballing and wet loose sluffs to size 2 on sun-exposed slopes. Ongoing wet loose avalanche activity is quite likely with forecast warm temperatures.
Snowpack Summary
Above freezing temperatures at higher elevations have caused snow surfaces to moisten on sun-exposed slopes; however, a nightly crust recovery is likely with forecast clear skies. The surface snow on northerly aspects is dry and wind-pressed with continued surface hoar growth at lower elevations. 40-80 cm below the surface is a persistent weakness of buried surface hoar. No recent activity has been reported on this layer, but human triggering may be possible in isolated terrain, particularly with forecast warm temperatures. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer exists, which is now unlikely to be triggered, except perhaps by intense warming or by heavy triggers in steep, shallow, rocky terrain where more facetting has taken place.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose wet activity is possible with ongoing warm temperatures. Watch for triggering in steep, sun-exposed terrain.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>
Aspects: North, North East, East.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Cornice failure is possible with continued warm temperatures. Watch for triggering when solar influence is strong.
Extra caution needed around cornices with the current warm conditions.>Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.>
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 21st, 2013 2:00PM