Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

The next storm pulse is expected to arrive Tuesday overnight and is expected to bring 5-20cm of new snow by Wednesday afternoon. Amounts are expected to be greatest along the coast so there is some uncertainty as to how much will make it inland. Alpine winds are forecast to be moderate from the south and freezing levels could reach over 2000m. A bit of a break is expected Wednesday afternoon or evening but the next storm pulse arrives Wednesday night. Another 10-20cm is expected by Thursday morning with freezing levels around 2000m and moderate alpine wind from the south. Unsettled conditions and light flurries are expected during the day on Thursday and on Friday. Freezing levels are forecast to fall below 1500m and alpine winds should generally be light.

No new avalanches were reported on Monday.  On Sunday, a natural size 3 wind slab avalanche was reported. The slab was 50cm thick and ran on an old reloaded bed surface in a shallow snowpack area. Ski cutting on Sunday produced size 1 soft slabs within the recent storm slabs. Lots of cracking was reported but limited propagation. On Saturday, a ski cut produced a size 1 slab avalanche in a leeward feature on a northeast aspect at 2200m. The slab was 10-20cm thick. Rain-soaked lower elevations are unlikely to see much in the way of avalanche activity on Wednesday, but storm slab avalanches are expected to be reactive to human-triggering at higher elevations with ongoing snowfall and wind continuing overnight Tuesday and Wednesday. Cornices are reported to large and fragile, and may fail under the weight of a person.

30-60cm of new snow has accumulated in the last week with largest amounts to south of the region. This new snow overlies a thick melt-freeze crust which extends into the alpine. The snow is reported to be bonding well to the crust and recent avalanches have been failing within the recent storm snow, not on the crust interface.  Moderate wind transport and cornice development have both been reported over the weekend and Monday night's storm will continue to develop wind slabs and cornices. In the deepest snowfall areas, a more widespread storm slab may become reactive with the additional loading overnight. Moist snow is being reported up to around 1800m on Sunday. Rain will continue to soak lower elevations overnight. The weak surface hoar layer from early January can be found down over a meter and is still reactive in isolated snowpack tests but triggering an avalanche on this layer has become unlikely.