Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 20th, 2015 7:47AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Storm Slabs.

Peter, Avalanche Canada

Northwest Coastal.

Stormy weather will maintain elevated avalanche danger this week.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: It looks like weâ€™re in for a wet and stormy week! Precipitation amounts: Tonight and Weds = 20-40 mm, Thursday = 20-30 mm, Friday = possible even heavier amounts. Freezing levels should rise to 1500 m on Wednesday and gradually climb closer to 2000 m by Friday. Winds should be generally strong from the SW throughout the week.

Avalanche Summary

Recent observations include several one natural size 2.5 wind slab from a large cross-loaded alpine slope, and several size 1-1.5 intentionally skier triggered slabs on steep wind loaded rolls. Avalanche activity will be on the rise over the next few days with incoming snow/rain, wind, and warming.

Snowpack Summary

Around 30-50 cm of recent storm snow has fallen in the past couple days, with much more expected this week. The new snow was relatively light initially but we may see heavier moist snow fall as temperatures start to rise, leaving us with an 'upside down' slab situation. Recent moderate or strong SW winds have created dense wind slabs in lee and cross-loaded terrain. A buried rain crust and/or surface hoar layer is down about 50-60 cm. Observations of the strength at this interface have been limited. The November crust near the bottom of the snowpack is generally well bonded, but may still be reactive in areas with a shallow snowpack, or with a very heavy load.

Problems

Wind Slabs

It looks like a very wet and windy week. Expect deep wind slabs and fresh cornices to build in expose lee terrain. These may release naturally during periods of heavy loading.

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Storm Slabs

Periods of heavy snowfall could create fresh touchy storm slabs in sheltered terrain. Warming and rain could trigger wet slabs or loose wet sluffs at lower elevations.

Avoid slopes with glide cracks.>Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Jan 21st, 2015 2:00PM