Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 3rd, 2016–Mar 4th, 2016

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

New snowfall amounts are uncertain for Thursday night. Pay close attention to how much snow falls in your riding area, and be prepared to back off to conservative terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Weather models are calling for 10-20cm of new snow on Thursday night and another 10cm on Friday evening. Generally light flurries are forecast for Saturday while a mix of sun and cloud is expected on Sunday. Ridgetop winds on Friday will be moderate from the south, becoming light on Saturday and Sunday. Freezing levels will hover around 1000m on Friday and then rise to about 1400m for the weekend.

Avalanche Summary

In recent days only small new wind slab avalanches were reported. Most of these avalanches were soft slabs and were confined to the immediate lee of ridgecrests. Continued wind slab activity is expected in response to new snow and wind on Thursday night and Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Strong to extreme southwest winds have redistributed light amounts of new snow into new wind slabs at treeline and in the alpine. In some areas, recent accumulations have been slow to bond to a crust which lies just below the surface.An older crust buried in early February can now be found around 50-100cm below the surface. This crust, which may coexist with small facets or decomposing surface hoar, is still producing sudden planar results in tests. I'd remain suspicious of this layer in steep, unsupported terrain at treeline and in the alpine.The mid pack is generally well settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow and wind will create fresh wind slabs at treeline and in the alpine. Watch for triggering in the lee of ridgecrests and terrain breaks.

Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3