Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 20th, 2014–Apr 21st, 2014

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Avalanche danger can rise quickly with afternoon warming and solar radiation. Be aware of changing conditions and overhead hazards.For more insight into spring danger ratings, check out this blog post.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Monday should be mostly dry. Light precipitation is expected for Monday night and Tuesday. A weak ridge of high pressure should bring at least partially sunny conditions for Wednesday. There is some model uncertainty and a possibility that the ridge could build over the south coast on Tuesday.Monday: Scattered precipitation 0-3mm, freezing level am: 1700m pm: 1900m, ridgetop wind: moderate S-SW decreasing during the dayMon. Night/Tuesday: Precipitation 5-10mm, freezing level am: 1500m pm: 1700m, ridgetop wind: light variableWednesday: A mix of sun and cloud, convective flurries possible, freezing level am: 1000m pm: 1700m, ridgetop wind: light-moderate NW

Avalanche Summary

We received 2 reports of avalanche activity in the Duffy Lake Road area on Friday. This includes a natural size 1.5 wind slab released from a steep north facing couloir, a skier triggered size 2.5 storm slab on a north aspect, and a skier triggered size 1 storm slab which released down 30cm. We are no longer receiving professional field reports from this region so public observations are really appreciated. If you are out in the mountains, please send your observations to [email protected].

Snowpack Summary

A highly variable spring snowpack exists across the region and conditions can change rapidly throughout the day. At lower elevations below-treeline, the snowpack is isothermal and melting rapidly. At mid elevations, between roughly 1500 and 2000m (and higher on sunny slopes), the snowpack is undergoing daily melt-freeze cycles. In the mornings, a refrozen surface generally means good stability. In the afternoon when the surface melts, the stability can deteriorate quickly, especially on sunny slopes. The recent storm has produced dry snow in the alpine resulting in the formation of storm slabs and wind slabs which sit on an old crust. The stability of these slabs has generally been improving but on the first really sunny day, stability is expected to deteriorate rapidly and natural avalanche activity is likely, especially on sunny slopes. Large cornices remain a concern and are expected to become reactive during periods of solar warming. The early-Feb facet/crust layer (down ~2m) and a weak basal layer are both dormant but remain a concern during periods of intense warming, especially in thinner snowpack areas, when large spring avalanches may step down to these layers.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong S-SW winds have formed wind slabs in leeward alpine features.

Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

Loose wet activity can be expected from steep features during periods of solar warming or rain. Isolated wet slabs may be possible under the same conditions where the recent storm snow is poorly bonded to the underlying crust.

Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

Large cornices may become reactive during periods of sun and warming. Cornice falls have the potential to trigger deep instabilities which could result in large, destructive avalanches.

Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4