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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 8th, 2016–Feb 9th, 2016

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

3500 meter freezing levels on Tuesday means avalanche control on EEOR and a good day to hit the ski hill and give back country avalanche terrain a miss!

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud.  No new precipitation for Tuesday.  Alpine temperature 3.0 C.  Winds light to moderate 30km/h West.  Freezing levels up to 3500 meters.

Avalanche Summary

Very little to no avalanche activity observed today along the Smith Dorrien and Spray Lakes highway.

Snowpack Summary

Windslabs and storm slab interfaces are bonding and tightening up. The critical weakness in the snowpack at the moment is the January 6th facet layer.  In some sheltered locations at treeline and below the layer can be found 30-40 cm below the surface.  At higher elevations where the Jan 6th  is present, compression tests and other mechanical tests are widely variable.  The long and the short of it is that the layer is widespread and giving mixed results, therefore my confidence in the snowpack is low right now.  Therefore its a great time to keep terrain choices fairly straightforward and keeping exposure time to big features like head walls, big snow faces and cornices to a minimum.  The warmer air is here and will be around all week peaking on Tuesday.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.