We are in a predictable freeze/thaw cycle right now. North aspects will likely hold dry snow for awhile yet. Some fantastic skiing right now on the right aspects! Just be sure to take advantage of the frozen crusts and avoid the late day sun.
Weather Forecast
Freezing levels will approach 2000m tomorrow with sunny skies. Expect some overnight recovery tonight with a rapid deterioration tomorrow on solar aspects. Winds will be light at all elevations with variable directions. Some isolated flurries can be expected, but no real accumulation.
Avalanche Summary
Some small isolated loose dry avalanches were noted on polar aspects. Of more concern was a number of loose wet avalanches that started around 2pm. These were much bigger(sz2), and limited to steep alpine terrain.
Snowpack Summary
The new snow from the week-end is hanging in there on polar aspects. Amounts vary with altitude. The alpine has as much as 30cm's in places and treeline has 15-20 on average. Solar aspects and valley bottoms have seen significant heat and settlement, storm snow amounts are shrinking rapidly. Up to treeline, all aspects have a partially refrozen midpack that is supportive. The new snow sits directly on top of this crust and is bonding reasonably well. The alpine still has a winter snowpack in most places with either moist snow, or low density storm snow on top. Aspect plays a huge role in what you can expect.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.