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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 12th, 2025–Nov 13th, 2025

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Early Season
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Early Season
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Early Season

Regions

Glacier.

A natural avalanche cycle is expected with the incoming storm, avoid avalanche terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed this week. A natural avalanche cycle is expected with the incoming storm. Last weekend a skier triggered a size 2.0 avalanche at Balu Pass and went for a rocky ride.

Snowpack Summary

By Thursday afternoon up to 40cm of new snow will sit over old wind slabs above 1900m and a previously buried weak layer of surface hoar in open tree line areas. This could be up to 80cm deep in lee areas after the storm.

Below tree line wet snow or rain will soak or possible melt the already thin early season snow cover.

Weather Summary

A warm, wet weather system will bring high freezing levels, heavy snow/rain and strong winds on Thursday.

Tonight: Snow 10cm. FZL 1500m. Wind: SW Mod-strong.

Thur: Heavy Snow. 20-40cms. FZL 2300m. Winds: SW strong gusting extreme.

Fri: Flurries up to 5cms. FZL 1700m. Winds: light, gusting strong

Sat: Flurries. FZL 1800m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.