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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 16th, 2022–Apr 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Danger ratings are low, but always be on the lookout for wind slabs at higher elevations and weak overhanging cornices.

Watch for strong sunshine creating wet surface snow in southern areas near Mt Arrowsmith that have received recent snow.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with light southeasterly winds. 2-10 cm of snow expected. Freezing levels drop to 500 m. 

SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with moderate southeasterly winds. Freezing levels rise to 1200 m. Isolated flurries are expected to bring trace amounts. 

MONDAY: Snow begins early in the morning with 10-40 cm expected, favouring western terrain, freezing levels reach 1300 m. Strong southeast winds.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with continued light snowfall bringing up to 10 cm over the day. Freezing levels reach 1000 m. Moderate to strong southerly winds. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. Periods of strong sunshine in many areas have produced pinwheeling and small point releases this week. Recent MIN reports suggest great conditions can be found on shaded, sheltered slopes. Check out this MIN report on recent conditions in the Beadnell area, or the Mt Cain area in this MIN report.

Observations are limited at this time of year, so please consider posting to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Spring convection has delivered highly variable amounts of storm snow above a melt freeze crust found on sun affected slopes. Periods of sun may soften or break down the crust throughout the day where it exists on the surface. Wind affected snow can be found mainly on west facing slopes at treeline and above, from recent easterly winds. However local wind patterns may have varied.

A widespread and supportive crust is now buried 30-80 cm deep. Reports suggest this crust is currently bonding well with the layers around it. 

The mid and lower snowpack is considered strong at this time, consisting of hard snow and melt freeze crusts. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Sheltered slopes at lower elevations will offer the best riding.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.