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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 4th, 2022–Apr 5th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

The recent storm snow is expected to be touchy on Tuesday and human-triggered avalanches are likely. 

Depending on the timing and amount of sun, solar-triggered avalanches are also possible. Extra caution is recommended around steep, sun-exposed slopes. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Unsettled conditions are expected for Tuesday as the storm system exits the region and a ridge of high pressure begins to build in its wake. 

Monday Night: Snowfall 10-30 cm, strong to extreme SW wind, freezing level low around 800 m. 

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud with lingering flurries in the morning, strong NW wind easing through the day, freezing level high around 1200 m.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate to strong SW wind, freezing level high around 1500 m.

Thursday: Mainly cloudy with a chance of sunny breaks, moderate to strong SW wind, freezing level high 2000-2500 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, numerous natural and skier-triggered size 1 storm slabs were reported on northwest through northeast aspects at treeline. These were 10-20 cm thick and sliding on a melt-freeze crust. This MIN post reported a small natural avalanche as well as a remotely triggered wind slab avalanche which was 30 cm thick and sliding on the crust. This MIN post describes a small natural avalanche on a northeast aspect at 1100 m elevation. 

Observations are very limited this time of year. If you are getting out in the backcountry, please consider sharing your observations to the Mountain Information Network. 

Snowpack Summary

As of Monday afternoon, recent storm snow accumulation is estimated to be in the 50-80 cm range. This storm snow has buried a widespread, supportive melt-freeze crust. Strong to extreme southwest wind has redistributed this storm snow in exposed, high elevation terrain forming touchy wind slabs. 

The middle and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a buried crust.
  • Avoid exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.