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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2020–Mar 17th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia.

A stable weather pattern is forecast for the next few days. Minimize exposure to steep slopes facing the sun during the hottest part of the day.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY Night: Mainly clear, light northwest wind, alpine temperature -8 C.

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest wind, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level 1800 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1500 m.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports show several natural wind slab avalanches ranging in size from 1.5 to 2.5 running in the alpine on east, southeast and north aspects at treeline and in the alpine. There was also two reporst of a natural size 2 and 3 persistent slab avalanches running on the late February surface hoar layer. These were on west and southwest aspects between 1700 m and 2200 m and were 50-100 cm deep. 

Snowpack Summary

Recent northeast wind has redistributed the snow and formed wind slabs in exposed terrain. The recent snow that fell last week may sit on a surface hoar layer and a sun crust on steep solar aspects.

A widespread weak layer of surface hoar is buried 60-120 cm deep. On solar aspects, this layer may sit over a crust. There is a low likelihood of triggering an avalanche on this layer, but the consequences of doing so would be high. Read more about surface hoar on our forecaster blog.

Terrain and Travel

  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.