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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 22nd, 2020–Mar 23rd, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Minor accumulations of new snow may form isolated slabs in the most wind exposed alpine terrain. Loose dry avalanches are most likely where new snow sits over a crust.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: Up to 5 cm new snow. Light northeast wind. Freezing level 700 m.

Monday: 5-10 cm new snow. Light northeast wind. Freezing level 900 m.

Tuesday: Up to 5 cm new snow then clearing. Moderate northeast wind. Freezing level 500 m.

Wednesday: Clear. Moderate northeast wind. Freezing level 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Loose wet avalanches were observed on solar aspects during the warm, sunny week. A few cornice failures were observed last Wednesday but did not trigger slabs.

If you decide to travel in the backcountry, consider sharing your observations with us and fellow recreationists via the Mountain Information Network (MIN) to supplement our data stream as operators are shutting down. Even just a photo of what the day looked like would be helpful.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of new snow sits over melt-freeze crusts on solar aspects, and extensively wind affected surfaces in exposed terrain that did not see the sun. 

A weak layer of surface hoar crystals buried early March may be found around 30-50 cm deep.

An early-season layer of faceted grains and melt-freeze crust near the base of the snowpack may linger. The most suspect locations to trigger this layer would be where the snowpack is thin near rocky outcrops. A large load, such as a cornice fall, also has the potential of triggering it. With cooling temperatures and increased cloud cover over the next few days, deep persistent avalanches on these layers are unlikely.

Terrain and Travel

  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.