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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2022–Mar 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Hazard will increase with elevation as the most reactive slabs will be found on steep wind-affected slopes. 

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy skies, no precipitation, light to moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures drop to -6 C with freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

THURSDAY: Sunny periods in the morning then increasing cloud throughout the day, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -2 C with freezing level climbing to 1700 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with flurries easing off in the morning bringing 5 to 10 cm of new snow, moderate wind from the southwest, freezing level around 1600 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries starting midday brining trace amounts of snow, light wind from the southwest, freezing level around 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

A natural storm slab avalanche cycle occurred on Tuesday with many large slab avalanches (size 1.5 to 2) at upper elevations and wet loose avalanches below treeline. Preliminary reports from Wednesday suggest storm slabs were still reactive to explosive triggering. The new snow will likely remain reactive to human triggering in some steep high elevation terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snowfall amounts taper with elevation. There is 20 to 35 cm of heavy powder at upper elevations, while warm temperatures have left moist and crusty snow below 1600 to 1800 m. Several crusts can be found in the upper snowpack and recent observations suggest the snow is well bonded to these crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Investigate the bond of the recent snow before committing to your line.
  • If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.